摘要

设计管理策略以推进我们对抗生素的管理，估计抗生素污染和抗生素耐药性在环境部门的发展风险非常重要。在这项研究中，我们提出了一种建模方法来评估环境舱内抗生素耐药性发展的风险，并展示其在水产养殖生产系统中的应用。我们使用ERA-AQUA模型模拟了用于越南鲶鱼生产的12种抗生素的暴露浓度。表征抗生素对细菌群体的选择性压力的最小选择性浓度（MSC）分布来自欧洲抗微生物敏感性试验委员会（EUCAST）最小抑制浓度数据集。计算每种抗生素的抗生素抗性发展风险（RDR），作为抗生素暴露分布超过代表细菌群体的MSC分布的概率。所有抗生素在池塘沉积物中的RDR几乎为100％。大部分抗生素在池塘水中RDR值均较高，其中利福平，左氧氟沙星和氨苄青霉素的值最高。在出水混合区域，大多数抗生素的RDRs低，除阿莫西林，氨苄青霉素和甲氧苄氨嘧啶呈中度风险外，利福平和左氧氟沙星具有高风险。 RDR提供了一种有效的方法，可以在风险评估的初始阶段对多种抗生素和治疗方案进行基准分析，以确定它们在不同环境舱室产生耐药性的可能性，并可用于推导阻力阈值浓度。

Estimating antibiotic pollution and antibiotic resistance development risks in environmental compartments is important to design management strategies that advance our stewardship of antibiotics. In this study we propose a modelling approach to estimate the risk of antibiotic resistance development in environmental compartments and demonstrate its application inaquaculture production systems. We modelled exposure concentrations for 12 antibiotics used in Vietnamese Pangasius catfish production using the ERA-AQUA model. Minimum selective concentration (MSC) distributions that characterize the selective pressure of antibiotics on bacterial communities were derived from the European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST) Minimum Inhibitory Concentration dataset. The antibiotic resistance development risk (RDR) for each antibiotic was calculated as the probability that the antibiotic exposure distribution exceeds the MSC distribution representing the bacterial community. RDRs in pond sediments were nearly 100% for all antibiotics. Median RDR values in pond water were high for the majority of the antibiotics, with rifampicin, levofloxacin and ampicillin having highest values. In the effluent mixing area, RDRs were low for most antibiotics, with the exception of amoxicillin, ampicillin and trimethoprim, which presented moderate risks, and rifampicin and levofloxacin, which presented high risks. The RDR provides an efficient means to benchmark multiple antibiotics and treatment regimes in the initial phase of a risk assessment with regards to their potential to develop resistance in different environmental compartments, and can be used to derive resistance threshold concentrations.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749117300969